Pascal's Wager is Safer in Reverse
Picking a Religion is Dangerous Business

Pascal's Wager is that it is 'safer' to believe in God because if you're wrong, you don't lose anything. But here are five reasons to turn this argument on its head, and reject God and religion: (1) As God has historically served as a force for evil and it seems that any demon could very easily trick us into thinking that it is God, we must reject all feelings and thoughts from God for fear of us being deluded into committing yet more misdemeanours. (2) The major monotheistic religions hold that idolatry is a serious sin so it is safer to accept no god rather than risk accepting the incorrect one. (3) The major monotheistic religions hold that having the correct beliefs is so important that having the wrong ones is normally punished with particular glee; it is safer to remain doubtful than to commit to the wrong set of beliefs. (4) The goal of reaching heaven is a selfish motive so probably won't get you there. (5) A good and benevolent god judges us according to our choices in life, not according to the religions we happen to be born with, or convert to, given that our choices are based on incomplete and subjectively interpreted evidence - if God is just then our religion is largely irrelevant to it. In conclusion: it is much safer for yourself and for society to not pick a religion.

1. Powerful Evil Beings Can Pretend to be God
   1. The Devil as an Angel of Light, and the Satanic Verses
   2. Be Strong and Have Doubt
2. Picking the Wrong Religion is Worse Than Not Picking
   1. Mr Pascal, You Can't Just Choose Your Beliefs
   2. Believing in the Wrong God
   3. Believing the Wrong Things
3. Attaining Heaven: Selfishness Versus Humility
4. God is Evil and Must be Rejected
5. What If You You Die and Find Yourself Before a Good God?

1. Powerful Evil Beings Can Pretend to be God

1.1. The Devil as an Angel of Light, and the Satanic Verses

Any powerful spirit can pretend to be good. Even a being of complete evil, like Satan in the Christian Bible, is said to be able to appear 'as an angel of light' (2 Cor. 11:14). And in Islam, the Satanic verses were sneaked into the Qu'ran by the devil, without Muhammad noticing that they were from the most evil being rather than angel Gabriel. That a being of complete evil can hide its true nature and appear as good is a genuine warning from world religions; how much easier must it be for lesser demons and naughty spirits to hide their lesser quantities of evil (e.g. 1 John 4:1). Some groups of early Christians thought that the entire Old Testament was written by an interloper; an evil god, that ought to be overthrown. Such dualistic battles are common in gnostic and mystery religions. Us poor Human beings have little chance of determining who are the good, and who are the bad, in the world of gods, angels, demons and spirits.

1.2. Be Strong and Have Doubt

We should model all of our behaviour on strict moralistic, humanistic and secular grounds, based on reason and rationality. This way, we cannot be tricked. When we hear voices or think we know what God wants, or think God is talking to us, or that angels are talking to us, we should heed the great warnings of the Bible and the Quran: The devil can trick us into thinking that its instructions are from God. In fact, I am sure that a powerful evil demon would definitely pretend to be good, and then spread prejudice, hatred, intolerance and bigotry in the name of God. In addition, the more evil spirits will convey to its misdirected followers in strong language just how important it is to 'follow God' and to obey without questioning. Faith may be our weakest point, leading us (as it has in history) to commit evil, and leading us from truth, and, it is surely better to be cautious, to question, and to be wary of voices and feelings from above.

Consider the difference between an atheist who is going crazy and thinks he hears voices telling him to kill his neighbour, and the same happening to a god-fearing theist. The atheist is much more likely to recognize paranoid schizophrenia as the cause of the voice, while the theist is much more likely to think the voice is from God and to act on it. Unfortunately history bears this out:

“Atheists and scientists do not kill each other over their beliefs. The adherents of superstring theory have never killed opposing theorists, and Lamarckian Evolutionists never killed any Darwinian Evolutionists on account of their beliefs. Newton and Einstein may have disagreed, but they refrained from violently attacking each other's followers. Like them, Arius and Athanasius disagreed over theory in the 4th century, although in their case it wasn't physics, but about the nature of Christ. The Arians and the Nicene Christians, however, soon ended up damning each other to hell because of the other's "wrong" beliefs, and then resorted to murder, aggression and burning until the Arians had been wiped out. Well, that is one way to settle a theoretical dispute. But why is it the religious way? There is something about religious beliefs that leads to violent intolerance.”

"Why Question Beliefs?: 1.3. Faith: Why Religious Beliefs Are so Vehemently Defended" by Vexen Crabtree (2009)

The fact that religions claim divinity, that they claim absolute truth and link morality, society, authority and philosophy all into one whole, makes people more likely to fight and die for them. I have written much on the negative role of religion. If revelations from above were always genuine, we simply wouldn't see the massive quantity of murder, abuse and hatred perpetrated in God's name across world history.

• "Religion, Violence, Crime and Mass Suicide" by Vexen Crabtree (2009)

• "Time to Move On: Religion Has Cost Too Much" by Vexen Crabtree (2010)

It is clearly obvious that following a religion and believing in it, is a good path for some, and a dangerous path for others. It is simply a case of people believing the right things, and then going on to lead exemplary lives.

2. Picking the Wrong Religion is Worse Than Not Picking

2.1. Mr Pascal, You Can't Just Choose Your Beliefs

Pascal's Wager is the famous idea that it is a better idea to believe in God, just in case.

“The great French mathematician Blaise Pascal reckoned that [...] you'd better believe in God, because if you are right you stand to gain eternal bliss and if you are wrong it won't make any difference anyway. On the other hand, if you don't believe in God and you turn out to be wrong you get eternal damnation, whereas if you are right it makes no difference. On the face of it the decision is a no-brainer. Believe in God.

There is something distinctly odd about the argument, however. Believing is not something you can decide to do as a matter of policy. [...] I can decide to go to church and I can decide to recite the Nicene Creed, and I can decide to swear on a stack of bibles that I believe every word inside them. But none of that can make me actually believe it if I don't. Pascal's wager could only ever be an argument for feigning belief in God. And the God that you claim to believe in had better not be of the omniscient kind or he'd see through the deception.”

"The God Delusion" by Prof. Richard Dawkins (2006)₁

I argue here that the best response to Pascal's Wager is to consider the dangers of accepting the wrong religion. Read on!

2.2. Believing in the Wrong God

I have heard - well, had shouted at me by email - many compelling arguments from Muslims and Christians that unless I accept Muhammad as God's final and most true prophet, or Jesus as the Son of God, then I will not be allowed to enter heaven and will probably go to hell. These are high stakes indeed.

So, is Islam or Christianity going to save me? Jesus or Muhammad? Should I embrace God in English, Allah in Hebrew, or Ahura Mazda? Do I need to convert to Judaism and practice religion in a detailed way, or be a Buddhist and lose myself in meditation? It seems that Pascal's Wager sounds easy, but turns out to be impossible.

In monotheistic religions worshipping a false God is held to be worse than worshipping none at all. Worshipping wrongly goes against at least one of the great 10 Commandments, and the Qur'an goes to repetitious lengths to continually pour scorn on those who believe in a God who is a Trinity, saying over and over that those particular beliefs are the worst kind of wrong, with all kinds of special punishments waiting for those who are so stubbornly wrong. It seems that Christianity and Islamic scripture both warn of the same thing: Having the wrong beliefs, in the wrong God, or believing the wrong things about God, or worshipping God in the wrong way, are all specially grave sins. From the Qu'ran:

“Unbelievers are those that say: 'God is the Messiah, the son of Mary.' For the Messiah himself said: 'Children of Israel, serve God, my Lord and your Lord.' He that worships other deities besides God, God will deny him Paradise, and the Fire shall be his home. None shall help the evil-doers.

Unbelievers are those that say: 'God is one of three.' There is but one God. If they do not desist from so saying, those of them that disbelieve shall be sternly punished.”

Qu'ran (Penguin translation) Surah 5 (The Table):72-74

2.3. Believing the Wrong Things

Even once a particular religion is chosen, there are frequently so many divisions and contradictory factions that the path to the "right" set of beliefs is a long way from being settled. The majority of these groups have battled murderously with one another in history. It seems like it's a very long and twisted path to stumble across the right set of beliefs: a dangerous path. Although in the Christian Bible the following verse says it is better to believe, further verses reveal that the truth is a little more complicated:

“Whoever believes and is baptized will be saved, but whoever does not believe will be condemned.”

Jesus' words according to the author of Mark 16:16

So it seems at first, God will punish those who are not lucky enough to be convinced by Christian claims that you have to be baptized. However many people are at first convinced of their new, Christian, religion, only later to realize that some of it doesn't make sense, or, to come to believe some things wrongly within Christianity. So, take note of this verse:

“It is impossible for those who have once been enlightened, who have tasted the heavenly gift, who have shared in the Holy Spirit, who have tasted the goodness of the word of God and the powers of the coming age, if they fall away, to be brought back to repentance, because to their loss they are crucifying the Son of God all over again and subjecting him to public disgrace.”

Hebrews 6:4-6

What is this saying? If you start out believing the right things and take part in the Christian religion correctly, but then 'fall away', then it is impossible to be brought back into the fold. In other words, once you start believing, you have to avoid heresy and wrong-belief, otherwise you pay for it eternally. Serious stuff indeed. When I read passages like that, I wonder if Christianity is safe at all because how would any convert know if they believed the wrong things, given our reliance on shaky historical translations of the Bible? If you doubt the conclusion that it is better to avoid Christianity altogether than to commit to it, then, read one final verse:

“If they have escaped the corruption of the world by knowing our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ and are again entangled in it and overcome, they are worse off at the end than they were at the beginning. It would have been better for them not to have known the way of righteousness, than to have known it and then to turn their backs on the sacred command that was passed on to them.”

2 Peter 2:20-22

It is safer to be ignorant, innocent and doubtful. It is better to admit that you have no idea which concept of God is the right one, and which sets of beliefs are the safest. I personally suspect that as so much 'bad fruit' has come of human religions, that no religion has got the correct set of beliefs. Agnosticism and Atheism are safer paths to tread than the dangerous road of theism. If you adhere to the wrong religion or have the wrong beliefs, classical religions have punishments in store just for you. Pascal's Wager turns out to be the wrong way round: For your own good, you better not believe in God because the chances are, you'll believe in the wrong way!

3. Attaining Heaven: Selfishness Versus Humility

If you make it your aim in life to get to heaven then you are essentially acting selfishly. The same goes if you base your morality on simply avoiding doing the things that might get you sent to hell when you die. A good person does good for its own sake, not because (s)he wants to be rewarded.

“If I am threatened into behaving in a good manner then I am at best amoral, because I am not acting with free will. If you believe that a supreme god is going to punish you (in hell) or deny you life (annihilation) if you misbehave, it is like being permanently threatened into behaving well. In addition, if you believe there is some great reward for behaving well, then your motives for good behavior are more selfish. [...] Who is more moral? Those who act for the sake of goodness itself, or those who do good acts under the belief that failure to do so results in hell?”

"Morals and Religion in Theory and Practice" by Vexen Crabtree (1999)

When I make decisions, I want to do the right things. When I study truth, I want to believe the right things according to the best evidence and logic available. I cannot pick what I believe based on the benefits - some people might be able to practice doublethink and do that, but I value honesty and integrity in both moral and intellectual arenas.

“No man can control his belief. You hear evidence for and against, and the integrity of the soul stands at the scales and tells which side rises and which side falls. You can not believe as you wish. You must believe as you must.”

"Complete Lectures of Col. R. G. Ingersol (1900)" by Robert. G. Ingersol (1900)

There are too many religions and too many beliefs. Theology is too complicated for my simple mind; and I cannot possibly research the basics of all religions, let alone attempt to judge which ones are true. In short, I am, as a human being, incapable of making a sensible choice as to which religion is the right one. This, I know. I know this out of humility, out of my knowledge of the problems of epistemology and subjectivism. Because I know that most religions consider worshipping the wrong god, or believing wrongly, to be heinous crimes against divinity, it is simply safer if I don't pick a religion.

Consider the fates of these two people:

1. Out of all the religions, this person picks the one that sounds like it will give the best rewards after death.

2. This person simply accepts whatever religion he was born with, and tries to live his life as best he can.

3. Out of all the religions, this person doesn't know which to pick even though he studies them, so he tries to simply live his life as best he can.

Imagining for the moment that god is benevolent (good) and judges us, then, it is surely the third person who deserves most merit. The first person, who follows Pascal's Wager, is openly self-centered. Given that many religions proscribe punishments for those that worship the wrong god, the third position (pick no religion) is the safest of all three options.

4. God is Evil and Must be Rejected

Given that there is immense suffering and pain in the world, I cannot believe that a good god exists. So if I encountered god, or if I discovered that it had founded religion(s) here on Earth, I would also reject those religions as they are agencies of an evil and immoral force:

“

The existence of such large quantities of suffering, despair, pain, of natural disasters such as earthquakes, of the death of the unborn and the immense suffering of lovers & kind-hearted people means that god is evil and intentionally creates life in order to create suffering. That all life exists in a food chain means that life is completely tied to death, and such a barbaric biological cycle could only have been made by an evil god. Also, that such a god appears not to exist, or actively hides itself, is a source of confusion, conflict, war and stress and is again more likely the antics of an evil god. Given the state of the natural world, it is impossible that a good god exists. It is more likely that an evil god exists, but, it is sensible to assume that there is no god of either type. Even if there is not a god of either type, as the dominance of death and violence in the natural world, a result of nature being abused by life and not being designed for life, I think the evil symbol of Satan is the best representative of the state of reality and the universe, whether or not an actual evil god exists.

If God did exist and was evil, it would undoubtedly lie and tell everyone it was a good god and that it loved them. It would create maximum confusion by preaching multiple conflicting religions. It would create heaven and make it hard to get to in order to tease and torture people into making their own lives hell. As all of those things happen, if there is a God, it is doing the things an evil God would do!

Once I recognized and accepted this state of affairs and adequately called myself a Satanist, I could concentrate my life on happiness, love, stability and peace. Because I know and understand that death always wins, that life is temporary, I waste no time on short-term whims that reduce my quality of life, or of those around me, and I waste no time with spiritual pipe dreams. Recognizing Satan as the personified meta-figure of reality is self-affirming, life-affirming, positive, honest and clarifying.”

"God Must Be Evil (If It Exists): 5. Conclusion" by Vexen Crabtree (2003)

Siding with god in any way is an abandonment of my morals. This extreme conclusion is born of my genuine distaste at the way the universe is; the vast darkness and emptiness of space and the way that biological life requires predator-prey cycles just to keep us all alive. If I am completely wrong about all this, though, and God is good, then I am sure that it would forgive me my reaction against the failures of material life. As I make genuine attempts in my life to help other people overcome their errors, and am compassionate in my dealings with people in the world, I am sure that a good God would judge me favourably.

5. What If You You Die and Find Yourself Before a Good God?

Some people struggle to find the right religion, and have simply not had the capacity to decide which of all the religions bears the most wholesome fruit, and which makes most sense. Some do not struggle because they are sure, whilst the vast majority of humankind are content with whatever religion they happen to be born with. If there is a God, all these people will one day come to face the consequences of their circumstances. Consider, then, what may happen before God, after death:

1. God punishes those who considered all the religions, and who then made the wrong choice.

2. God punishes those who were, unfortunately, born into the wrong religion. Like most people, they did not have enough experience of world religions to consider switching. Unlucky!

3. God punishes those whose behaviour was reprehensible, and rewards those whose behaviour was good.

Of these three possibilities, only the third one is the hallmark of a good-natured, benevolent god. The God who judges people because they were not lucky enough to discern correct theological beliefs from incorrect ones is injust, and arbitrary. It is very hard to argue that people must have the right beliefs to get into heaven, if God judges people fairly. So finally, it is up to us Humans to make a moral choice. Could you accept an immoral god that judges people injustly? I cannot, would not, and will not. It only the benevolent God of point three above that I wish to entertain. And such a God does not require us to have accurate beliefs, because it judges us according to our choices in life, not according to the religions we are born with (or the partial evidence we use to pick a different religion). Pascal's Wager - that it is safer to believe, can only support the immoral and injust forms of divinity.

So, to repeat the introduction: Pascal's Wager is that it is 'safer' to believe in God because if you're wrong, you don't lose anything. But here are five reasons to turn this argument on its head, and reject God and religion: (1) As God has historically served as a force for evil and it seems that any demon could very easily trick us into thinking that it is God, we must reject all feelings and thoughts from God for fear of us being deluded into committing yet more misdemeanours. (2) The major monotheistic religions hold that idolatry is a serious sin so it is safer to accept no god rather than risk accepting the incorrect one. (3) The major monotheistic religions hold that having the correct beliefs is so important that having the wrong ones is normally punished with particular glee; it is safer to remain doubtful than to commit to the wrong set of beliefs. (4) The goal of reaching heaven is a selfish motive so probably won't get you there. (5) A good and benevolent god judges us according to our choices in life, not according to the religions we happen to be born with, or convert to, given that our choices are based on incomplete and subjectively interpreted evidence - if God is just then our religion is largely irrelevant to it. In conclusion: it is much safer for yourself and for society to not pick a religion.